Where would you rank Felix Hernandez among fantasy SP for 2011?

Question

Simple question, I suppose, since the fantasy drafts are either happening or coming up.

I ranked the majority of the players by position, and am now working on starters.  My friend says King Felix is Top 5.  Yahoo! says he is 3rd.  I have him 9th.  Why?  Lack of wins.

My top 9 are this:

1. Halladay
2. Lee
3. Lincecum
4. Wainwright (yes, I know he's hurt.  Still decided to rank them as if he weren't)
5. Carpenter
6. Sabathia
7. Lester
8. Grienke
9. Hernandez

So, where do you have King Felix?  Explain your position.  Try to sway me to move Felix ahead of Grienke (awesome now that he's in the NL), Lester (Sox are great team, Ks a lot), or Sabathia (could still win 18 games) or someone else.

GO!

mojo8983 · Accepted Answer

I agree more with the MLB ranking for starters...

1) Halladay
2) F. Hernandez
3) Lincecum
4) J. Johnson (FLA)
5) Lee
6) Kershaw
7) Grienke
8) Sabathia
9) U. Jimenez
10) Lester

Sure, Hernandez only won 13 games last season, but he could have won more. There was six instances that he could have won, but eventually took a loss or no-decision. His overall stats was impressive and he did win 19 games two seasons ago, so maybe 16 is a realistic shot at this point, which is somewhat in the Timmy K department. Grienke is good, but he's not that dominant as a typical ace. Nobody expects him to repeat his magical 2009 season, but he could shave his ERA to at least a run. He can go for 200 K, but getting a 2.00 ERA is very hard in hitter-friendly Milwaukee for Grienke. The age factor also plays a role, as Grienke is three years older than Hernandez (27 to 24) and the King has continue to lower his ERA and WHIP while increasing his K total for the last three seasons. Lester has potential for a 20-Win season, but his ERA has hover around 3.00+ ERA and his innings limits him from being a true elite (average only 200 innings while the elites climbs to 230+ innings). Sabathia is also an elite but you have to remember that he was worn out during the stretch, including the postseason (5.63 ERA during the playoffs, gave up five runs in three of his final seven starts), and entering the age of 30 with 2100+ innings pitch in his career, you might think the Yanks are trying to limit him this season. 

You omit some players that I have in the top-10, which includes Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Johnson should be in the same rank as the elite, as he lead all NL starters with a 2.30 ERA, but like Hernandez, the wins was the only thing preventing him (11 Wins). Kershaw has yet to reach his peak and could go for 230K and 16 Wins for this Dodgers team (and he's only 22). Jimenez had 19 Wins, including a 15-1 start pre-All Star break last season and still manage to keep his ERA below 3.00 to finish out the season.

Matthew · Answer

I agree with you, he's ranked 15th in the Fantasy MLB Magazine I bought. It's all based on wins and run support and there are about 5 guys on the Mariners that I can't see hitting for better than .250. He's a stud and should be ranked top 5 (probably 3rd behind Halladay and Lincecum) however he'll pitch a gem and lose it and these days (unfortunately) wins are a big part of winning a Cy Young and being ranked high. I agree with your rankings. BTW, who's 10? Maybe a little guy up North where I live named BRANDON MORROW! WOO! (PS. I would dump out Carpenter and add in Verlander or Jimenez)

Where would you rank Felix Hernandez among fantasy SP for 2011?

2 Answers