Do you believe the Governments predictions on the death rates?

Making predictions based on data is what government, and science, is all about.  But if you’re asking about the US federal government, it is completely inept and not to be trusted in any respect.  Try get your information directly from respected science sources. 

Generally they are all usually worst case scenarios

As a rule, I take with a grain of salt anything Governments say. In any case, whether you believe them or not, these things are not predictions but extrapolations. They are estimations based on current information and patterns. 

Depends what government it is, what they are basing their research on and what steps they are taking to alter things - and what they think is in the best interests of the public to hear. 

Of course they cannot magically predict the future, but they can make an educated guess based on the data which they have available.

I believe anything the orange man with polyurethane hair says, don't you? After all the Evangelicals think he is God (of a million sins.)